Development of economic globalization and knowledge economy takes unprecedented increase to market scales,market scope and world productivity。Nowadays,with the detailization and development of devision,economic globalization gradually shows its feature as the international labour devision which bases on the factor advantages。This new phenomenon brings not only new forms to international production,but also new contents to the research on the partten of international trade,development of international investment and MNCs。
Study on outward foreign direct investment (OFDI)potential of China,judging by the conclusions of empirical studies,analysing the stages,scale of FDI,industries and locations choices,must be of great important theorietical and realistic significance to China persists in the belief of scientific development,makes full use of two markets and two kinds of resourses,takes in the advanced technology,copes with finiancial crisis actively,develops our opening policy,and realize the 11th“fiveyear”plan。
The methods used in this article is theoretical analysis and empirical analysis to study OFDI potential of China comprehensively。There are six chapters in this article:
Chapter 1 is introduction。This chapter bases on the statement of background,aims and significance of study,and emphasise the summary and comment of prevailing research on FDI。After that,this chapter defines two important terms,OFDI of China and OFDI potential of China,and shows that,the OFDI potential of China refers to China has strong basis and correct direction in developing OFDI,meanwhile,China has obvious trends of development and huge space of obtaining profit。At the end of this chapter,there are methods of study and the train of thoughts,as the base of detailed further study。
Chapter 2 shows a new angle of view on theoretical research of FDI。This is the main point of theoretical research in this article。This artical calls it the Synthetic Dynamic Reasons Hypothesis of Factor Advantage,which includes the classification of factors and dynamic reasons of FDI。We consider that,factors can be classified as productive factor,marketing factor,policy factor,strategic factor and opportunity factor,and different factor advantages compounds into four kinds of OFDI:maintaining factor advantages OFDI,realizing factor advantages OFDI,seeking factor advantages OFDI and fostering factor advantages OFDI。The hypothesis may contain many other prevailing theories,and may be extensively used in China and other developing countries。Bases on the hypothesis,this chapter also shows the conditions of this hypothesis,they are the condition of world economy,the level of modern industrialization of country,role of authority,operation logic of corporation,synthetic factors advantages of host country,and factor combine efficiency。
Chapter 3 is on the general analysis of OFDI potential of China。This chapter analyses and points out that China and the host countries could supply the basic conditions for China's OFDI,the domestic and foreign factors,especially the factor advantages of host countries direct the location choice of China's OFDI。These forms the OFDI potential of China。
Chapter 4 is the empirical analysis of OFDI potential of China。This chapter analyses the potential of OFDI scales,industries and locations choices,and tries to seek basis and space of development。To the potential of OFDI scales,according to Dunning's IDP theory,testment shows China already entered into the third stage of OFDI in 2005,and considering of the testified results of IPI indicator,we predict that China will enter into the forth stage when Chinese GDP per capita reaches US dollar 3735.According to the synthetic elements analyse,we know that China's GDP per capita,trade volume,foreign reserve,foreign exchange rate and fixed assets investment have very strong relation with OFDI,further,based on the development trend of these elements,we can predict the scientific scale of OFDI。
To the potential of industries choices,the use of RCA,industry dynamic and static clustem indicators shows,in the future,China should continue reinforcing OFDI in business services and transportation,fasten OFDI in agriculture,forestry and fishing,foster the competitive advantages of communication,software and computer,service of R&D and technology,and geology exploration,and choose the right location for mining and manufacuring industry。To the potential of locations choices,“gravity model”is used in this chapter,and the writer advances the“paradox of gravity model”,and concludes that,multilateral trade volume,instead of the distance between two countries,is the main effective factor of locations choices。The classification of countries shows that,China should strengthen the investment to Asiapacific group,excavate the investment potential of nonstock and advantageseeking group,direct the investment of capitaltransfer group,and develop the investment and trade with other countries。
Chapter 5 is the exertion of OFDI potential of China。At first,from the respects of world economy,country and authority,corporation,this chapter analyses the promoting factors of OFDI potential,and the following is the strategies to exert OFDI potential of China。They are coordination of trade and investment policy;combination of“go out”strategy,energy resource strategy and foreign aid strategy;construction and consummation of medium organization and prewarning mechanism of OFDI;developing the clusterize OFDI。
Chapter 6 is conclusion and prospection。This chapter summarizes the main points of this article and the shortcomings,then sets up study directions in future。