书城政治超越均势:冷战后的美国南亚安全战略
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第21章 超越均势理念:冷战后美国对南亚的重新认识(6)

[43]Stephen Philip Cohen and Richard L.Park,India:Emergent Power?New York:Crane,Russak,1979,p.xiv.

[44]Stephen Philip Cohen,India:Emerging Power,Washington,D.C.:Brookings Institution Press,2001,pp.299-301.

[45]Ibid.p.35.

[46]Ibid.p.311.

[47]Ibid.pp.309-310.

[48]Ibid.p.312.

[49]Stephen P.Cohen,India:Emerging Power,New Delhi:Oxford University Press India,2004,“Preface to the India Paperback Edition”,pp.x-xi.

[50]Teresita C.Schaffer,Rising India and U.S.Policy Options in Asia,A Report of the CSIS South Asia Program,January 2002.

[51]Kenneth Waltz,Theory of International Politics,Reading,Penn.:Addison‐Wesley,1979,p.191.

[52]George Perkovich,“Is India a Major Power?”The Washington Quarterly,Vol.27,No.1,Winter2003-04,p.129.

[53][印]贾瓦哈拉尔·尼赫鲁:《印度的发现》,世界知识出版社1958年版,第57页。

[54]Rajat Pandit,“India to‘Arm’Itself for Strategic Interests”,The Times of India,27 October 2004.

[55]V.M.Hewitt,The International Politics of South Asia,Manchester University Press,1992,p.195.

[56]Lee H.Hamilton提交给参议院对外关系委员会近东和南亚事务小组委员会关于南亚不扩散问题的听证会的证词,1995年3月9日。S.HRG.104-46,“Overview of U.S.Policy Toward South Asia.”

[57]约瑟夫·奈1995年3月9日在参议院对外关系委员会近东和南亚事务小组委员会关于南亚不扩散问题的听证会上的证词。S.HRG.104-46,“Overview of U.S.Policy Toward South Asia”.

[58]National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States,“The 9/11 Commission Report”,Washington,D.C.:Government of Printing Office,2004.

[59]Dennis Kux,The United States and Pakistan 1947—2000:Disenchanted A llies,New Delhi:OxfordUnivesity Press India,2001,pp.359-360.

[60]同上,第361-362页。

[61]Milind Thakar,“Coping with Insecurity:The Pakistani Variable in Indo‐U.S.Relations”,In GaryK.Bertsch,Seema Gahlaut,Anupam Srivastava,eds.,Engaging India:U.S.Strategic Relations with the World's Largest Democracy,New York:Rortledge,1999,p.223.

[62]巴基斯坦曾发生多次军事政变,其中成功的就有阿尤布·汗(1958年)、叶海亚·汗(1969年)、齐亚·哈克(1977年)和穆沙拉夫(1999年)。而总理曾多次被总统解职。关于巴基斯坦国内政治变化的分析,可参阅:Ian Talbot,Pakistan:A Modern History,New York:St.Martin's Press,1998;Owen Bennett‐Jones,Pakistan:Eye of the Storm,Yale University Press,2002;Lawrence Ziring,Pakistan at the Crossroads of History,Oxford:One world,2003.美国与巴基斯坦于50年代中期、80年代早期和“9·11”事件后三次结盟,又多次解散或名存实亡。关于美巴关系的演变,见Kux,Dennis,The United States and Pakistan:Disenchanted A llies 1947—2001,Washington,D.C.and Baltimore:Wilson Center and Johns Hopkins University Press,2001;Robert J.McMahon,The Cold War on the Periphery:The United States 1947—1965,India and Pakistan,New York:Columbia University Press,1994.

[63]Sumit Ganguly,“Pakistan,the Other Rouge Nations”,Cur rent History,April,2004,pp.147-150.

[64]Robert Kaplan,“A Nuclear Yugoslavia”,New York Times Bok Review,November 3,2002.

[65]Owen Bennett‐Jones,Pakistan:Eye of the Storm,Yale University Press,2002.

[66]Mary Anne Weaver,Pakistan:In the Shadow of Jihad and Afghanistan,New York:Farrar,Stra U.S.and Giroux,2002,p.10.

[67]Kanwal Sibal Remark,in http://www.meadev.nic.in/speeches/id‐uspart.htm

[68]Salamder Davoudi,Guy Dimore,“U.S.Cements Pakistan L inks Despite Fear of Nuclear Deals”,Financial Times(London),12 February 2004,p.11.

[69]Dennis Kux,“Pakistan:Flawed not Failed State”,Headline Series,No.322,Foreign Policy Association,Summer 2001.

[70]“失败国家”常用来指那些未能向其公民提供基本必需品,如食品、住房和安全的国家,如索马里、撒哈拉沙漠以南的部分国家、塔利班政权的阿富汗等。但即使一些先进和发达的国家,也并不总能“成功”地满足其公民的需要,因此,在西方发达国家掌握国际关系话语权的当今国际社会,这一概念并未被普遍接受和使用。斯蒂芬·科恩认为至少有五种“失败”:第一,未能实现过去的期望、自己的承诺或别人的期待;第二,未能实现其理想;第三,经济上衰弱;第四,领导失败;第五,对邻国和国际社会构成灾难性的威胁。科恩认为,巴基斯坦或多或少,或不同程度地符合上述五种情况。见Stephen Philip Cohen,The Idea of Pakistan,New Delhi:Oxford University Press India,2005,pp.3-4.伊朗学者则提出“巴基斯坦综合征”(Pakistan syndrome)这一概念,意指巴基斯坦在许多方面是失败的,但仍然把一件事情做得很好———制造了核弹。

[71]该书共分九章,其英文标题分别为“The Idea of Pakistan”,“The State of Pakistan”,“The Army's Pakistan”,“Political Pakistan”,“Islamic Pakistan”,“Regionalism and Separatism”,“Demographic,Educational,and Economic Prospects”,“Pakistan's Futures”,“American Options”.见Stephen Philip Cohen,The Idea of Pakistan,Washington,D.C.:Brookings Institution Press,2004;New Delhi:Oxford University Press India,2005.

[72]同上,见第九章“巴基斯坦的未来”,第267-300页。